The hottest global auto market has not yet warmed

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The global auto market has not yet warmed up, and the auto parts industry will enter a period of slow growth

according to the latest data of the passenger car Federation, the retail trend of China's passenger cars in the first three weeks of October was relatively sluggish, with an average daily retail volume of 15500 units in the first week, down 49% year-on-year; In the second week, the average daily retail sales of 63400 units were unstable, with a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the trend rebounded slightly; However, in the third week, the average daily retail sales fell by 23% year-on-year to 53000 units

the passenger Association believes that since the same period last year was the end of the withdrawal of the preferential policy of small displacement purchase tax, the high base constituted the year-on-year downward performance of China's car market in the second half of this year

Li Dawei, deputy director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the national development and Reform Commission, agreed with this statement. At the press conference of "2018 auto parts' top 100 '" held on October 30, Li Dawei said that the reason why domestic passenger car sales fell for three consecutive months was related to the withdrawal of the previous preferential automobile policy

"at present, China's automobile sales have reached a high level, and the consumption upgrading of automobiles is entering a bottleneck period. Especially in the third quarter, the consumption confidence of the domestic market has declined, which is first reflected in durable consumer goods such as automobiles. However, this is only a short-term phenomenon. In the future, the overall demand for automobiles in China may change from a high-speed period to a relatively flat period if the growth period of waste plastics is blindly landfilled, and the potential of overseas markets is expanding." Li Dawei said

in fact, not only is China's auto market facing growth pressure, but the U.S. auto market is also experiencing a spiral decline, and there is no sign of rapid stabilization and recovery. According to the latest CNBC report, many American dealers believe that October will be another gloomy season

the current situation in the European market, which is heavily dependent on the automotive industry, is not optimistic. According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in September this year, the number of new vehicles registered in the European passenger car market was 1123184, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%

the formal implementation of wltp in Europe has caused great cost pressure on the production and sales of automobile manufacturers. Take Volkswagen as an example, the delivery of Volkswagen brand in Europe fell by 43% in September. Volkswagen said in a statement that the decline in sales in Europe led to an 18% drop in the brand's global delivery in September. Previously, some popular models of Volkswagen brand failed to meet the wltp standard, resulting in a delivery bottleneck

the growth pressure on the global auto market has also affected the performance of the auto parts industry. "At present, the wave of rapid growth of the parts industry driven by the highly prosperous vehicle market has gradually faded, and the global automotive industry has begun to enter the new normal of slow growth." Fang yinliang, partner of Roland Berger, predicts that in the short term, global auto parts suppliers will achieve sustained but slow revenue growth, with the growth rate maintained at about 3%, and the average profit margin of the industry stabilized at 7%

the global auto market has not recovered in October, and the auto parts industry will enter a period of slow growth

Fang yinliang believes that in this process, the development trend of regional markets will be different: the growth rate of the auto parts industry will slow down in mature markets represented by the United States, Europe, Japan, etc; The auto parts industry in developing countries represented by South America, Russia and the Middle East maintained strong growth; China's auto parts market will return to rational development, and local parts enterprises will face increased competition and low added value of existing products

according to the Research Report of Roland Berger, the scale effect of China's auto parts industry is prominent at present. In terms of revenue scale, the annual revenue of China's top 100 auto parts enterprises in 2017 totaled more than 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.32% year-on-year, including 11 enterprises with revenue growth of more than 50% and 34 enterprises with revenue growth of more than 20%. And so far in 2018, 12 of the top 100 auto parts enterprises with declining operating revenue

"at present, there are 12590 auto parts suppliers above Designated Size in China, of which a considerable number of parts enterprises have the problems of relatively single business structure and low product added value, and the wave of industry integration will further intensify in the future." Fang yinliang said

it is worth noting that under the guiding effect of relevant emission environmental protection requirements, small displacement engine components and electric power system components will usher in a growth period. According to statistics, small displacement turbochargers accounted for nearly 1/5 of China's overall passenger car sales in 2017. Among the top 100 domestic auto parts enterprises, there are now 10 top 100 enterprises that take electric power system as the leading product, and their revenue as suppliers of key businesses increased by more than 30% in 2017

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