The hottest global 23 photovoltaic capacity in Chi

Two thirds of the global photovoltaic capacity in China is overcapacity, causing enterprises to be on the verge of bankruptcy

photovoltaic industry: don't just stare at a tree

overcapacity: China's capacity exceeds the global installed capacity, photovoltaic enterprises struggle

even the most optimistic people about the future prospects of the industry have to admit that China's photovoltaic capacity is indeed excess at present

according to the new energy survey data from Bloomberg, in 2012, the global production capacity of crystalline silicon components was 60.3gw (1gw=1 million KW), of which the production capacity of various nano inorganic powder materials modified plastics from China, for example, was as high as 40gw. In other words, China accounts for two-thirds of the world's photovoltaic capacity. In that year, the installed capacity of global PV was 30.5gw

the most direct consequence of excess is that photovoltaic enterprises are in distress. At the end of March this year, Wuxi Suntech Solar Power Co., Ltd., the former leader of the industry, announced its application for bankruptcy and reorganization. Like Suntech, Jiangxi Savi is on the verge of bankruptcy under the heavy pressure of huge debts. Other struggling photovoltaic enterprises are not much better off

in early May, when SNEC (International Solar Photovoltaic Conference and Exhibition), the world's largest photovoltaic Expo, was held in Shanghai, the EU's double reaction to China's solar photovoltaic products made waves again, and the EU may impose high temporary tariffs on China's photovoltaic products again. If this move is finally implemented, it will make Chinese photovoltaic enterprises suffering from surplus even worse

way out: we can't hang from the tree of foreign markets

a more optimistic view is that the current overcapacity of China's photovoltaic industry is actually temporary. As long as the photovoltaic industry adjusts its thinking, the photovoltaic industry will still be a sunrise industry in the future

at the national renewable energy distributed generation seminar not long ago, Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believed that by 2050, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 3000gw. According to the 30-year development period, the average annual installed capacity should be 100gw. Therefore, today's overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry is actually temporary, and even far from enough in five years

confidence returns to confidence. More insiders are still more concerned about how to get rid of the current difficulties of photovoltaic enterprises. It is generally believed that if China's photovoltaic industry, which is raised by foreign markets, wants to get out of the dilemma, it must change the situation of hanging on the tree of foreign markets, vigorously expand the domestic market, pay equal attention to both domestic and foreign markets, and learn to walk on two legs. And at present, the domestic market may be more critical. When can the domestic photovoltaic market, like wind power a few years ago, suddenly appear like a spring breeze, thousands of trees and pear blossoms, then the spring of the photovoltaic industry will come

it is gratifying that China's solar power generation will reach 15gw by 2015, according to the preliminary target set in the 12th Five Year Plan of renewable energy of the national energy administration. In order to achieve this goal, the government will further improve the subsidy policy for photovoltaic power generation, and support the widespread use of distributed photovoltaic power generation, which should increase by 38.5% year-on-year. Although the development speed is far less attractive than that of wind power in those years, it is also a long-awaited rain for the photovoltaic industry after a long drought

however, how can the rain really nourish the thirsty earth rather than quench thirst? This is the core of the problem. Shi Dinghuan, counselor of the State Council and director of China Renewable Energy Society, believes that the biggest problem in the launch of China's photovoltaic market is mainly institutional rather than technical. How to make the incentive policy really in place and break the bottleneck restricting development is a top priority. Although the relevant departments have issued a series of supporting policies, the current policies are too macro and lack of detailed rules. There is no basis for local implementation and no precedent for reference, making it difficult to implement the policies

speaking of specific policies, zhangguobao, former director of the national energy administration, once pointed out that the key to the leapfrog development of wind power construction was that we grasped the bull's nose of electricity price. At that time, a bidding policy suddenly prized the entire wind power market, so today's photovoltaic market was launched. How to make the upper electricity price truly competitive through technological progress and electricity price policy is the key to the launch of the domestic photovoltaic market

many experts in the industry believe that a series of favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry issued by the state have actually taken a gratifying step. For example, in July, 2011, the national development and Reform Commission formulated the price incentive policy of 1 yuan electricity price, which promoted the centralized construction of large-scale ground power stations in Western China. Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other western provinces with light and geographical conditions have set off an upsurge in the development and construction of large-scale ground photovoltaic power stations. Although the heat is not as hot as that of wind power in that year, the stainless steel industry remains prosperous, but the momentum is also good

since October 2012, the State Grid has put forward the policy of supporting distributed photovoltaic power stations, and the national development and Reform Commission then introduced a subsidy standard of 0.35 yuan per kilowatt hour for distributed photovoltaic power generation in early 2013 to support the development of distributed photovoltaic power stations in terms of policy. These specific policies are conducive to the start of the domestic photovoltaic market

while vigorously cultivating and developing the domestic photovoltaic power generation market, the photovoltaic industry extends the industrial chain to avoid hanging on the tree of photovoltaic modules, which is also a way of thinking for photovoltaic enterprises to solve their difficulties

Gao Jifan, chairman of Changzhou Trinasolar Co., Ltd., pointed out at the global photovoltaic Leadership Forum held during SNEC that at present, photovoltaic enterprises need both horizontal integration of industrial restructuring and vertical integration of upstream and downstream industrial chains. Through vertical cooperation, we can avoid the situation of thousands of troops walking on the single wooden bridge of photovoltaic components

on SNEC, this idea has been confirmed

Hefei sungrow power supply is the largest manufacturer of solar inverter in China, and its products were mainly sold to Europe in the past. In recent days, 900million orders from power stations in Western China have made its A-share price rise rapidly. A photovoltaic inverter manufacturer also told: for the whole solar crystalline silicon system, solar modules account for 60% of the cost, but 40% of the cost also includes other electrical appliances and installation products. Although there is a serious surplus of crystalline silicon cells, the electrical equipment required by photovoltaic power stations such as inverters is much better, and the market demand is even maintaining a certain growth. Especially in the field of distributed photovoltaic power generation market, which is about to start, core components such as micro inverters are basically blank in the Chinese market. Therefore, broadening the thinking and lengthening the industrial chain is also a good medicine to solve the overcapacity of photovoltaic

path: which is better for centralized construction or distributed construction

everyone has no objection to starting the domestic market. The difference lies in whether to adopt the large base construction mode like wind power or the distributed construction mode like Europe and the United States

the advantage of centralized construction is that it can quickly expand the market and is undoubtedly the most effective way to quickly alleviate overcapacity. Moreover, this construction idea has shown its power in wind power construction. However, the side effect of centralized construction is the difficulty of power transmission. The sequela of the construction of wind power base is the large-scale abandonment of wind power today. Therefore, the dissenting opinion is that if PV continues the old way of wind power, today's overcapacity may be temporarily resolved, but if it is also abandoned in the future, it will not be conducive to the sustainable development of the entire PV industry

the advantage of distributed construction is that there is no electricity consumption problem, but the disadvantage is that the piecemeal development mode may be difficult to expand in a short time. Moreover, more importantly, China's national conditions are different from those of Europe and the United States. China's light resources and wind resources are very similar. The areas with rich resources are precisely those with low power load. If they are used spontaneously in these areas, the installed capacity will be greatly limited

which path should be taken to develop more reasonably? Cha Zhenfa, chairman of Zhenfa new energy, the largest photovoltaic power station system integrator in China, believes that centralized construction and distributed construction have their own advantages and disadvantages. Only by adjusting measures to local conditions, the centralized and distributed construction is the best policy

however, from the current situation, the enthusiasm of all regions for centralized construction is obviously higher. Therefore, Shi Lishan, director of the new energy department of the national energy administration, believes that at present, we should try our best to encourage and support the development of distributed photovoltaic construction. In other words, at least in the near future, even the power transmission of wind power base is difficult, the idea of large-scale base construction should not be encouraged. Maybe after a period of time, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than that of conventional energy power generation, and there is no problem with the transmission channel. It is a feasible choice to build photovoltaic power generation bases in the western region with a large number of land resources and solar energy resources, and send power to the central and Eastern load centers

Lu Yanwu, director of China Renewable Energy Society and Beijing photovoltaic professional committee, believes that in China, three prerequisites must be met for distributed construction to blossom in an all-round way, namely, full acquisition, priority and appropriate price. These three conditions are indispensable, otherwise it will be very difficult to promote in cities. Because the cost of integrated construction of photovoltaic buildings in cities will rise, and the current subsidy of 0.35 yuan is not enough to attract users to invest in distributed photovoltaic power stations. Only by making investors truly benefit, can this cause form a situation in which everyone gathers firewood and the flame is high

the situation learned in Zhangjiakou Baosheng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., the first distributed photovoltaic power generation project in Hebei, in April confirms the above view. The 600 kW rooftop photovoltaic power station built by this enterprise was realized in March this year and has generated 74600 kwh by the time of the interview. Based on the above electricity price of 0.71 yuan/kWh to vigorously promote the annexation and reorganization of enterprises, the average monthly electricity cost saved by the project is 52944 yuan. Due to the large power consumption of the enterprise, it can be used by itself. Li Yongjun, the general manager, told that the total investment of this project was 7.25 million yuan. Due to the subsidies of the state and the incentive policies of electric power, the economic benefits were still good. It is estimated that the cost can be recovered in about 10 years, and the operation life of the power station is 25 years, that is to say, the enterprise will make a net profit in the next ten years